I have to admit that, deep down, I never thought this was going to happen. And I wasn’t alone. The bookies were giving odds on Remain (and they made a fortune apparently, as betting was reportedly heavy) and the markets were assuming that the status quo would win out. Late polls seemed to indicate that the Remain side was going to pull it out. So when we went to bed last night with the ballots being counted, it seemed like a close vote with the Remain side eking out a win was most likely. There was no exit polling and the media was so burned in the last election (which they and the polls got completely wrong), so there were no projections and the paper ballots are counted by hand. As a result we went to be knowing only that Gibraltar had voted overwhelmingly to stick with the EU (no surprise), but with the actual result up in the air and no result expected until early the next morning. We woke to the clock radio telling us that the Leave side had prevailed and that Cameron had announced his resignation. It is all pretty shocking. Here are some thoughts:

• It was always pretty clear that Cameron would not survive a loss on the referendum. It was surprising that he resigned so quickly. Even the Leave side wanted him to stay in place (at least in the short term), anticipating the exact turmoil that is taking place. But I don’t blame him.
• The scathing response of Nicolas Sturgeon, the leader of Scotland, makes it absolutely clear that there will be another vote to leave the UK. She says that Scotland is being taken out of the EU against its will. So you can say goodbye to the “United” Kingdom.
• This all will happen over time. The UK is still in the EU. Under Article 50 of the EU Agreement, the British government has to give notice to the EU that they are leaving, which would start the clock running and Britain would be out in two years. The actual notice probably won’t happen until a new PM is chosen by the Tories. Thus, the whole thing will unfold over time. The divorce negotiations will be very rocky.
• It is hard to believe that a recession in Britain is not inevitable. The only real question is how bad and how long.
• This all probably helps Judie’s law practice in the short run. Companies are going to need lawyers to figure out how the navigate this changing landscape. I imagine that the financial sector of London is just freaking out right now.
• It is possible that the big winner in this is going to be Ireland! Many companies are going to be looking to move some or all of their operations from London to an EU country and Ireland is the most obvious destination.
• Exactly what happens in Northern Ireland, which voted to Remain, is unclear. Are firm borders between Northern Ireland and Ireland inevitable? This would change the politics in both countries.
• Boris Johnson and Michael Gove tried to sound statesmanlike and reassuring. It seems most likely that either one of them or Theresa May will end up being the next Prime Minister. Boris was booed by crowds around his house this morning, but that doesn’t mean much. It seems to me that he has to be the front-runner.
• Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, comes out badly in all of this (as always). The Remain side needed vigorous support from Labour voters, which did not materialize. While this is probably because the traditional Labour coalition is breaking up, it is also true that Corbyn has never been a supporter of the EU and was a lukewarm supporter of the Remain side. You are hearing some people blaming him for this loss, which isn’t fair but is just another issue for the anti-Corbyn parts of the Labour Party. This may be the triggering event that leads to a challenge to Corbyn.
• It will be fascinating to see what happens to the EU. Reform? Collapse? Beginning of the end of the Euro?
• There was an element of anti-intellectualism, anti-immigration, anti-elite impetus behind all of this. The young, the college educated, the cities such as London all supported Remain by large margins. The Leave side won with support from the poorer countryside, older, white voters and the less well educated. It resembles the Trump coalition in a way.

Turmoil doesn’t really do this whole mess justice.