Boris’ Big Gamble: As you probably know if you have any interest at all, Cameron returned from Brussels last Friday with his negotiated deal for a “Reformed EU”. He met with his Cabinet in an apparently rare Saturday meeting and came out to announce that the government would be in favor of remaining in the EU and that the referendum will be held on June 23rd. Other than the US Presidential Election, this is almost the most significant vote that will occur in the world this year.

Right after the cabinet meeting, six cabinet members left by the back door (!) and immediately went to a gathering of the group in favor of leaving the EU. The weren’t really big names, with the biggest being Michael Gove, Cameron’s friend and the Minister for Justice. (This is like the Attorney General opposing the President on a key issue.) But as a group, they are a bit short on charisma. (They make Cameron look dynamic, when he has all the charisma of Hillary Clinton, at best.) So it was very important for the “outters” that the more flamboyant  Boris Johnson (a leading Conservative MP and London’s outgoing Mayor with obvious PM ambitions) joined the cause on Sunday. He instantly becomes the big name leading the effort to leave.

Many suspect that Johnson acted purely out of political calculation, rather than any real conviction. (Cameron said as much in response to the news.) As a political play, it is fascinating. Cameron is in a position in which he is going to lose the support of a significant part of the Conservative Party on this issue. If these rebels succeed in the referendum and Britain leaves the EU, that would have to spell doom for Cameron and he would likely resign or be forced to do so. His successor would presumably have to come from the Out camp and that would have to be Boris. So, if Britain votes out, Boris doesn’t have to wait until 2020 for Cameron’s terms to end and jumps over Osborne and all of the other potential PMs who stuck by Cameron on this issue. On the other hand, if Cameron wins and Britain votes to stay a part of the EU, Boris would be dead meat. The winners would exact vengeance I am quite sure. The only question is whether Boris’ career would be completely over.

Some other Things to Know about Brexit: This referendum will consume the UK over the next four months. And it should, since it will determine the future course of The United Kingdom (and whether it remains united) and possibly the entire idea of a united Europe. Here are some things that you may not hear about it in the States, being completely absorbed by Trump:

• The election for the new mayor of London will occur in May and it will be interesting to see how it is impacted by the referendum. London is an area that apparently supports remaining in the EU. Will the Conservative candidate, billionaire’s son Zac Goldsmith, side with Cameron or Boris?
• Scotland also appears to be solidly in favor of staying in the EU and its leaders are already hinting that if Scotland supports staying in and the referendum takes the UK out, they will hold there own vote about leaving the UK so that they can be part of the EU. You can expect the pro-EU side to make the argument that a vote to leave the EU will also be a vote to break up the United Kingdom.
• Wales, meanwhile, is having its own legislative election in May. Polls seem to show that they are likely to support leaving the EU and that UKIP (a separate right-wing party–a bit like a British Tea Party, only not so batshit crazy) may actually win a few seats in Wales as a result of the xenophobia that seem likely to dominate the referendum. No one seems to be talking about Wales doing anything if the referendum result is opposed to the way the Welsh vote.
• Northern Ireland also has a legislative election in May. Who knows what they’ll do? Having  Ireland (firmly in the EU) sharing the island (and borders) with them should have some impact (one would guess), but that relationship is so fraught, that it is hard for me to figure anything out over there.
• So far, the “outters” seem to me to be mostly Trump-like xenophobes and old-line conservatives pining for the good old days when Britain was an Empire. Maybe Boris can widen their appeal. The other side appears to be the moderate Tories and Labour. Early polls seem to favor an out vote, but I wonder if that coalition can really win unless it can appeal more to the middle. But since the Campaign may largely be mindless fear-mongering from both sides, you never know.
• One final thing: The polls were so utterly wrong in the last election, utterly missing the Conservative sweep, that there is very little faith in their predictive ability right now. And the pollsters themselves were so burned that they do not speak confidently. Will that mean that the referendum politicking will not be poll-driven?

Another New Painting: Below you will see may latest painting, which is, of course, of our house in Montclair. I started out intending to use only really big brushes and to be bold. I didn’t lay the thing out in pencil or use a ruler, so the result is that the whole perspective is a bit off and the house is a bit askew. I thought about trying to fix it, but decided that I like it the way it is. I also though that it had a slight Edward Hopper quality that would be destroyed by detail, so I resisted the temptation to add to it.

One thing the painting almost certainly reflects for me is a bit of homesickness. It’s been nearly six months and, while Judie has been back to the US a few times on business, I have been here. And I recently realized that the initial thrill of living here has dissipated. At first there were countless new discoveries to make and it was just plain exciting to wander around, watch the ads on the telly, learn the language differences and listen to the accents, figure out the politics, see the sights, etc. London is a wonderful place to live and I am absolutely not complaining, but now I feel like I am living here, which is a significant evolution from my initial “stranger in a strange land” feeling. Here’s the painting: